Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $61,106$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.49 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58,738.5}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 42.1)}}\) (asimptote \(58,738.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,731$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(2.5 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,464.9}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(9,464.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $34,457$ on 2020-06-26

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $310,836$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(4.81 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{300,926.7}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 54.2)}}\) (asimptote \(300,926.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $43,498$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(8.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,283.9}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.5)}}\) (asimptote \(41,283.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $265,975$ on 2020-06-26

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $247,905$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(7.58 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{236,291.9}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 35.6)}}\) (asimptote \(236,291.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,338$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(8.97 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,382.6}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 34.1)}}\) (asimptote \(27,382.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $69,191$ on 2020-06-26

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $239,961$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(6.49 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{232,876.9}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 43.1)}}\) (asimptote \(232,876.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,708$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(8.41 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,645.7}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.5)}}\) (asimptote \(33,645.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,638$ on 2020-06-26

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $65,137$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(4.02 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{85,688.6}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 95.7)}}\) (asimptote \(85,688.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,280$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(815 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,076.7}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 50.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,076.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $59,857$ on 2020-06-26

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $199,473$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(5.16 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{187,932.5}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 40.8)}}\) (asimptote \(187,932.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29,781$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(7.75 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,752.3}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(28,752.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $93,919$ on 2020-06-26

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $50,213$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.24 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,470.9}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 41.4)}}\) (asimptote \(47,470.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,122$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.63 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,998.2}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 38.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,998.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $43,905$ on 2020-06-26

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,414$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(5.91 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(46.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,026.3}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(25,026.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,730$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(355 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,675.1}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 43.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,675.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $320$ on 2020-06-26

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

San Marino recovered 100%
Malta recovered 92%
Estonia recovered 91%
Italy recovered 84%
Lithuania recovered 78%
Hungary recovered 57%
Belarus recovered 31%
Poland recovered 12%

San Marino⮸

Population $33,931$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $698$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(185 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{696.9}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 44.3)}}\) (asimptote \(696.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $42$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(19.1 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(80.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41.5}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 24.6)}}\) (asimptote \(41.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $0$ on 2020-06-26

Malta⮸

Population $441,543$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $670$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(180 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{635.6}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 37.7)}}\) (asimptote \(635.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9$ on 2020-06-26

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29$ on 2020-06-26

Estonia⮸

Population $1,326,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,986$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(633 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,873.1}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 33.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,873.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $69$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(26.3 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{67.8}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 24.1)}}\) (asimptote \(67.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $120$ on 2020-06-26

Lithuania⮸

Population $2,722,289$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,808$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(588 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,670.1}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,670.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $78$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(19.3 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{77.4}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 37.9)}}\) (asimptote \(77.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $229$ on 2020-06-26